首发精神分裂症患者住院时间延长的生物学影响因素及预测模型的构建与验证
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上海市宝山区科学技术委员会医学卫生项目( 21-E-11)


Biological influencing factors and prediction model construction and validation of prolonged lengthof stay in first-episode schizophrenia patients
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    摘要:

    目的 探讨首发精神分裂症患者住院时间延长的生物学影响因素,构建预测模型并验证。 方法 回顾性选取2022 年1 月—2023 年12 月于上海市宝山区精神卫生中心住院的203 例精神分裂症 患者为研究对象。收集患者治疗前及出院前1 周内的人口学、生物学指标,住院期间主要用药、血药浓 度以及住院时间等资料。采用Pearson或Spearman 相关分析检验不同用药患者的住院时间与25 羟基维 生素D[(25(OH)D)]的相关性。纳入预测模型的患者被分为训练集和测试集,LASSO 回归用于筛选多 因素Logistic 回归模型的变量,对住院时间延长的独立危险因素应用列线图构建预测模型,采用受试者 工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线、决策曲线分析评估预测模型。结果 共155 例首发精神分裂症患者纳 入预测模型分析,按照7∶3 的比例随机分配至训练集(108 例)和测试集(47 例)。对患者治疗前及出院 前1 周内的指标进行随访,结果显示,与治疗前比较,出院前1 周内,糖化血红蛋白、甘油三酯、脂蛋白、 胱抑素C 、泌乳素、促甲状腺激素、25(OH)D 水平升高,空腹血糖、总胆固醇、高密度脂蛋白、低密度脂 蛋白、血钙、总三碘甲状腺原氨酸、总甲状腺素、游离三碘甲状腺原氨酸、游离甲状腺素和皮质醇水平 下降;免疫与炎症指标中,降钙素原水平下降、免疫球蛋白A 水平升高,治疗前后各指标水平比较,差异 均有统计学意义(均P < 0.05)。多因素Logistic 回归分析结果显示,年龄(OR=1.04, 95%CI:1.01~1.07, P=0.002) 和25(OH)D 水平(OR=1.09, 95%CI:1.02~1.16,P=0.002)是住院时间延长的危险因素。构建住 院时间延长的列线图预测模型,训练集、测试集的ROC 曲线下面积分别为0.698、0.716。对于应用阿立 哌唑的患者,在治疗后1 个月的阿立哌唑血药浓度与治疗前25(OH)D水平呈负相关(r=-0.40,P=0.027)。 结论 本研究构建和验证了首发精神分裂症患者住院时间延长的预测模型,且本列线图预测模型预测 良好。年龄较大、较高的25(OH)D 水平可能导致患者住院时间延长,而较高的25(OH)D水平可能通过 影响血药浓度从而延长住院时间。

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    Objective To explore the biological factors influencing the prolonged length of stay in first-episode schizophrenia patients, construct a predictive model, and validate it. Methods A total of 203 schizophrenia patients in Shanghai Baoshan Mental Health Center from January 2022 to December 2023 were retrospectively selected for the study. Variables such as demographic and biological indicators, primary medications during hospitalization, blood concentrations, and length of stay were collected from patients before treatment and within one week before discharge. Pearson or Spearman correlation was used to analyze the correlation between length of stay and 25 hydroxyvitamin D[ (25(OH)D)] in patients on different medications. The patients included in the prediction model were divided into a training set and a test set. LASSO regression was used to screen variables for the multifactor Logistic regression model. A predictive model was constructed by applying a nomogram to the independent risk factors for prolonged length of stay. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the predictive model. Results A total of 155 cases of first-episode schizophrenia were included in prediction model analysis and randomly assigned to training set( 108 cases) and test set( 47 cases) in a 7∶3 ratio. Follow up on indicators of the patient before treatment and within one week before discharge showed that, the levels of glycated hemoglobin, triglycerides, lipoproteins, cystatin C, prolactin, thyroid stimulating hormone, and 25(OH)D increased, levels of fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, blood calcium, total triiodothyronine, total thyroxine, free triiodothyronine, free thyroxine, and cortisol decreased, levels of procalcitonin decreased and levels of immunoglobulin A increased in immune and inflammatory indicators within one week before discharge compared with those before treatment, and the differences were statistically significant( all P<0.05). Multifactorial Logistic regression analysis showed that age[ OR=1.04, 95%CI( 1.01, 1.07),P=0.002] and 25(OH)D level[ OR=1.09,95%CI( 1.02,1.16),P=0.002] were risk factors for prolonged length of stay, and the difference was statistically significant. The area under the ROC curve of the training set and test set of the nomogram prediction model for prolonged length of stay was 0.698 and 0.716, respectively. For patients who applied aripiprazole, aripiprazole blood concentrations at one month post-treatment were negatively correlated with pre-treatment 25(OH)D levels with a statistical difference( r=-0.40,P=0.027). Conclusions This study constructs and validates a prediction model for prolonged length of stay in firstepisode schizophrenia, and the nomogram prediction model performs well. Older, higher 25(OH)D levels may result in patients having longer hospital stays, and high 25(OH)D levels may prolong hospital stays by affecting blood concentrations.

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任少宇,黄焱,董玲玲,谢清芳,赵黎萍,王继军.首发精神分裂症患者住院时间延长的生物学影响因素及预测模型的构建与验证[J].神经疾病与精神卫生,2025,25(6):381-388
DOI :10.3969/j. issn.1009-6574.2025.06.001.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-24