血清GSDMD 与IL-1β 联合NIHSS 评分预测急性大动脉粥样硬化型脑梗死预后的模型研究
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A model for predicting prognosis of acute large artery atherosclerotic cerebral infarction by serum GSDMD and IL-1β combined with NIHSS score
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    摘要:

    目的 探讨急性大动脉粥样硬化(LAA)型脑梗死患者血清细胞焦亡途径中关键因子消 皮素D(GSDMD)、核苷酸结合寡聚结构域样受体蛋白3(NLRP3)、白细胞介素(IL-1β)及IL-18 水平的变 化,并结合临床指标建立急性LAA 型脑梗死不良预后的预测模型。方法 选取2023 年6 月— 2024 年 10 月于河南医药大学第一附属医院收治的急性LAA 型脑梗死患者223 例,依据3 个月改良Rankin 量 表(mRS)评分分为预后良好组(mRS 评分≤ 2 分,n=150)和预后不良组(mRS 评分> 2 分,n=73),采用酶 联免疫吸附试验(ELISA)检测患者入院时及入院第7 天血清GSDMD、NLRP3、IL-1β、IL-18 水平,通过 Spearman 秩相关分析评估各标志物与入院时美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表(NIHSS)评分、3 个月mRS 评分的相关性,采用二项Logistic 回归分析预后不良的独立危险因素。校正年龄、冠心病等潜在混杂因 素后,构建列线图预测模型,通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线和Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验评估预测效能。 结果 入院时预后不良组的GSDMD 水平为1 249.82(1 071.14,1 444.40)pg/ml、NLRP3 水平为1 297.44 (1 075.45,1 392.13)pg/ml、IL-18 水平为(173.04±28.32)ng/ml,入院第7 天时预后不良组的GSDMD 水平为 (1 275.01±140.79)pg/ml、NLRP3水平为(1 264.45±216.49)pg/ml、IL-1β 水平为49.65(48.84,50.64)pg/ml, 均高于预后良好组的1 109.25(956.85,1 265.67)pg/ml、1 160.55(911.05,1 346.26)pg/ml、(163.66±20.87)ng/ml 及(1 223.37±174.90)pg/ml、(1 137.43±237.93)pg/ml、43.68(38.84,47.32)pg/ml,差异均有统计学意义 (Z/t=-2.413、-2.597、-2.517、-2.368、-3.851、-7.719;均P< 0.05)。两组患者入院时、入院第7 天的血 清IL-1β 水平差值比较,差异有统计学意义(Z=-4.034,P < 0.001)。患者入院血清GSDMD、NLRP3、 IL-1β、IL-18水平、入院第7天GSDMD及IL-1β水平与入院NIHSS评分均呈正相关(r=0.344、0.227、0.153、 0.180、0.149、0.169;均P< 0.05);入院血清GSDMD、NLRP3 及入院第7 天IL-1β 与出院3 个月mRS评分 均呈正相关(r=0.201、0.150、0.367;均P< 0.05)。二项Logistic 回归分析结果显示,入院时高中性粒细 胞百分比(OR=1.073,95%CI:1.007~1.143,P=0.029)、高NIHSS 评分(OR=1.584,95%CI:1.316~1.907, P < 0.001)、高GSDMD 水平(OR=1.004,95%CI:1.001~1.006,P=0.013)及入院第7 天时高IL-1β 水平 (OR=1.438,95%CI:1.254~1.649,P< 0.001)是LAA型脑梗死患者3 个月预后不良的独立危险因素。列 线图联合模型预测不良预后的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.959(95%CI:0.932~0.986),敏感度为89.04%,特 异度为92.00%。Hosmer-Lemeshow 拟合优度检验显示模型校准良好(χ2=4.500,P=0.809)。结论 急性 LAA 型脑梗死患者血清GSDMD、IL-1β 水平的升高与不良预后结局呈正相关,联合基线NIHSS 评分构 建的联合预测模型可提升预后评估的准确性。

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate changes in serum levels of key pyroptosis-related factors, including gasdermin D( GSDMD), nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptor protein 3( NLRP3), interleukin(IL)- 1β, and IL-18 in patients with acute large artery atherosclerotic( LAA) cerebral infarction, and to establish a predictive model for poor prognosis combining with clinical indicators. Methods A total of 223 patients with acute LAA cerebral infarction admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Henan Medical University between June 2023 and October 2024 were included in the study. According to the scores on the 3-month Modified Rankin Scale( mRS), patients were divided into a good prognosis group( mRS≤ 2; n=150) and a poor prognosis group( mRS > 2; n=73). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay( ELISA) was used to detect the serum levels of GSDMD, NLRP3, IL-1β, and IL-18 in patients at admission and on day 7 of admission. Spearman rank correlation was used to analyze the correlation between various biomarkers and the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale( NIHSS) score at admission and 3-month mRS score. Binary Logistic regression was used to analyze independent risk factors for poor prognosis. After adjusting for potential confounding factors such as age and coronary heart disease, a nomogram prediction model was constructed, and its predictive performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic( ROC) curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results In the poor prognosis group, the GSDMD, NLRP3, IL-18 levels at admission 1 249.82( 1 071.14, 1 444.40) pg/ml, 1 297.44( 1 075.45,1 392.13) pg/ml, and( 173.04±28.32) ng/ml, respectively, on day 7 of admission, the GSDMD, NLRP3, and IL-18 levels were( 1 275.01±140.79) pg/ml, (1 264.45±216.49) pg/ml, and 49.65( 48.84, 50.64) pg/ml, respectively, all of which were higher than those in the good prognosis group[ 1 109.25( 956.85, 1 265.67) pg/ml, 1 160.55( 911.05,1 346.26) pg/ml, (163.66±20.87) ng/ml, and( 1 223.37±174.90) pg/ml,( 1 137.43±237.93) pg/ml, and 43.68( 38.84, 47.32) pg/ml], all of which were statistically significant( Z/t=-2.413,-2.597, -2.517,-2.368, 3.851, -7.719; all P<0.05). The difference in the change in serum IL-1β level between the two groups at admission and on day 7 of admission was statistically significant( Z=-4.034, P < 0.001). Patients' serum levels of GSDMD, NLRP3, IL-1β, and IL-18 at admission, as well as GSDMD and IL-1β levels on day 7 of admission, were all positively correlated with the NIHSS score at admission( r=0.344, 0.227, 0.153, 0.180, 0.149, 0.169; all P< 0.05); serum GSDMD and NLRP3 levels at admission, as well as IL-1β levels on day 7 of admission, were all positively correlated with the 3-month mRS score( r=0.201, 0.150, 0.367; all P< 0.05), and all differences were statistically significant. Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that a high percentage of neutrophils at admission[ OR=1.073, 95%CI( 1.007,1.143), P=0.029), a high NIHSS score at admission[ OR=1.584, 95%CI( 1.316,1.907), P<0.001), and a high GSDMD level at admission[ OR=1.004, 95%CI( 1.001,1.006), P=0.013], and high IL-1β level on day 7 of admission[ OR=1.438, 95%CI( 1.254,1.649), P<0.001] were statistically independent risk factors for poor 3-month prognosis in patients with LAA cerebral infarction. The area under the ROC curve( AUC) of the combined nomogram model for predicting poor prognosis was 0.959 [95%CI( 0.932,0.986)], with a sensitivity of 89.04% and a specificity of 92.00%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed good calibration of the model( χ2=4.500,P=0.809). Conclusions Elevated serum levels of GSDMD and IL-1β in patients with LAA cerebral infarction are positively correlated with poor prognostic outcomes, and a combined predictive model constructed by combining the baseline NIHSS score can improve the accuracy of prognostic assessment.

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陈豫东,任静,李昆艳,等. 血清GSDMD 与IL-1β 联合NIHSS 评分预测急性大动脉粥样硬化型脑梗死预后的模型研究[J]. 神经疾病与精神卫生,2026,26(9):616-623. DOI:10.3969/j. issn.1009-6574.2026.09.002.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-22